| Signal | What the test found | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Best month for altcoins | 6 coins: the best month of each is matched by shuffled data in 20-71% of cases | No edge |
| Bull Market Support Band | 17 touches: +4.7% over 90 days vs +18.3% for random bull-market days; band broke in 11 of 17 | No edge |
| New listings | 348 Binance listings: median coin -10% in a week, average short +0.61% (t 0.24) | No edge |
| Funding + rising open interest | 522 coins: short -0.34%, long +0.07%, no better than funding alone | No edge |
| Extreme funding | 8,560 shorts: 55% won, average -0.33% after costs and funding | No edge |
| Altcoin season | Altcoins beat bitcoin the next month after only 3 of 8 readings | No edge |
| Rainbow chart | Bands known at the time: $1 became $22; holding made $193 | No edge |
| Uptober | Green in 10 of 13 Octobers, p = 0.125 | No edge |
| Pumps always dump | 1,215 pumps: pullback first in 52%, chance up to 53% | No edge |
| Liquidation magnets | Bigger cluster hit first in 55.2% of 105 events (p 0.165); forward test running | Undecided |
Each rule was written before the data was loaded; costs included, a control for luck and a second period.