Research · live
Signals today, and what our tests say about them
Every popular signal we have tested, shown the way a trader would see it today - and next to it the verdict. An active signal describes the market right now. In our tests, none of them turned into an edge after costs. Definitions are the ones the tests used.
Extreme funding Active
Shorting high funding won 55% of 8,560 trades but averaged -0.33% after costs and funding; buying negative funding averaged +0.07%.
Rising open interest + extreme funding Quiet
Adding rising open interest changed nothing: shorts averaged -0.34%, funding alone -0.37% (3,553 trades on 522 coins).
New listings Quiet
The median new listing fell 10% in a week and 64% of shorts won, but the average short was +0.61% (t 0.24); the worst three lost over 200%.
Pumps and dumps Active
After a pump, price pulled back first only 52% of the time. Shorting won 69% of trades, but 27 of 1,215 lost more than the position.
Altcoin season Quiet
After 8 altcoin season readings, altcoins beat bitcoin the next month only 3 times (p 0.24).
Bitcoin rainbow chart Quiet
With bands known at the time, $1 became $22 from 2016 to 2026; holding made $193.
Uptober Active
October was green in 10 of 13 years, but p = 0.125: chance can produce that with 13 years.
Liquidation magnets (BTC) Live
First 30 days: the bigger cluster was hit first in 55.2% of 105 events (p 0.165). The forward test on new data is running.
How to read this page
- Active means the signal's own definition is met right now; Quiet means it is not. Neither is a recommendation.
- The verdict is from a test with rules written before the data, a control for luck, a second period and costs included. See all results in one table and how the tests work.
- "No edge" does not prove an idea can never work - only that this version, on this data, did not beat chance after costs.
FAQ
Is an active crypto trading signal a reason to trade?
Not on its own. Seven of the eight popular signals we tested had no edge after costs and one is still undecided, so an active signal says what the market looks like, not what it will do next.
How are the signals on this page defined?
As in each test: extreme funding is +0.10% per 8 hours or more (or -0.10% or less) on Binance; rising open interest means +10% in 24 hours with funding beyond 0.05%; a listing is a new Binance perpetual; a pump is +20% in 12 hours on 3x volume. Open interest here is Binance plus Bybit for 20 large coins.