Edge or Not

Research · quiz

Edge or Not? Guess the verdict

Seven popular crypto trading claims. Each one was tested on real exchange data with the rules written down first. Guess the verdict before you see it.

1 / 7Score: 0

The answers

Show all seven verdicts
  1. Coins that pump 20% in 12 hours usually dump. Shorting every pump is an edge. No edge
    69% of 1,215 pump shorts won, but the average after costs was only +1.1% (t 1.03): 27 trades lost more than the whole position. Test.
  2. After a 20% crash, coins bounce. Buying the crash is an edge. No edge
    59% of 524 crash buys lost money over 72 hours. The +1.3% average comes from a few huge rebounds and is not significant (t 0.71). Test.
  3. When funding is extremely high, the crowd is long and gets squeezed. Shorting it is an edge. No edge
    8,560 shorts at funding of +0.10% per 8 hours or more: 55% won, average -0.33% a day after costs and funding. Test.
  4. Bitcoin rose in 10 of 13 Octobers. Uptober is an edge. No edge
    Shuffled months produce an October this good 12.5% of the time (p = 0.125). With 13 years, that is within chance. Test.
  5. Buy bitcoin in the blue rainbow bands, sell in the red ones. No edge
    With bands known at the time, $1 became $22 from 2016 to 2026. Holding made $193. Only the hindsight version wins ($397). Test.
  6. When the altcoin season index reaches 75, rotate into altcoins for the next month. No edge
    After 8 altcoin season readings since 2019, altcoins beat bitcoin the next month only 3 times (p = 0.24). Test.
  7. Price gets pulled toward the biggest liquidation cluster. Undecided
    First 30 days: the bigger cluster was hit first in 55.2% of 105 events (p = 0.165) - not enough. A forward test on new data is running. Test.
"No edge" means the result was not distinguishable from chance after costs, on the data available - not that the idea can never work. Past data, not investment advice. How the tests work: five steps to a verdict.