Edge or Not

Monthly returns · SOL

Solana (SOL) monthly returns 2020-2026

Every completed month of Solana since Sep 2020 in one table, with the average, the median and how often each calendar month closed higher. Whether any month really stands out is a different question - and the answer, after allowing for chance, is no.

In short: best month by average Jan (+47.1%, median +8.9%, up in 3 of 6 years); worst Jun (-8.4%, median -10.0%, up in 1 of 6). Each calendar month has only 6-7 observations, so a month this good appears in shuffled data 62% of the time.

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
2026-15%-20%-1%0%-1%-11%-1%+41%+15%
2025+22%-36%-16%+18%+6%-1%+11%+16%+4%-10%-29%-7%
2024-5%+30%+61%-37%+31%-11%+17%-21%+13%+11%+41%-20%
2023+140%-9%-3%+8%-8%-9%+26%-17%+8%+80%+54%+72%
2022-41%0%+23%-31%-46%-26%+25%-26%+6%-2%-57%-30%
2021+182%+207%+48%+121%-23%+8%+3%+195%+31%+43%+3%-18%
2020-39%-47%+27%-23%
Average+47%+29%+19%+13%-7%-8%+14%+32%+5%+12%+7%-4%
Median+9%-4%+11%+4%-5%-10%+14%0%+8%+4%+15%-19%
Up years3/63/63/63/62/61/65/63/66/73/64/61/6

Binance SOLUSDT monthly candles, UTC: close of the last day divided by the open of the first day, minus one. Only completed months from Sep 2020 to Sep 2026; the listing month and the month in progress are left out. Updated when a new month closes.

Is there a best month for Solana?

The average of Jan is the highest in the table, but with 6-7 years per month a few huge months decide an average (Jan's median is +8.9%, against an average of +47.1%). To check whether the best of twelve months is more than luck we shuffled the monthly returns between calendar months 100,000 times and counted how often the best month looks at least this good: 62% of the time. The same test for the worst month (Jun) gives p 0.86.

The test covers six coins - Ethereum, BNB, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano - and none passed: Is there a best month for altcoins? Full test. For bitcoin: bitcoin monthly returns and is Uptober real?.

A table of past returns is not a forecast. Altcoins move with bitcoin, history is short and the largest moves are rare and huge. Only coins that survived to today are listed. Not investment advice.

FAQ

What is the best month for Solana?

By average, Jan (+47.1%, median +8.9%, positive in 3 of 6 years). It does not stand out from chance after allowing for checking twelve months.

What is the worst month for Solana?

By average, Jun (-8.4%, median -10.0%, positive in 1 of 6 years). Not distinguishable from chance either.

How are the returns calculated?

Close of the last day of the month divided by the open of the first day, minus one, from Binance SOLUSDT monthly candles (UTC). The first month of trading and the month in progress are left out.

Is there a seasonal pattern in Solana?

Not one that survives a test. In our pre-registered test of six altcoins, no coin had a calendar month that beat chance after correcting for twelve months and six coins.