Research · free

Edge or Not Weekly

One popular crypto trading idea, tested with the rules written down before the data - the numbers, the verdict, and what we could not check. Short, once a week, free.

What you get

• One test or one finding a week in 500-800 words: the claim, how we tested it, the result with costs and a control for luck, and the limits.
• The scoreboard: 9 tests so far; none has shown an edge - the running list is on crypto trading strategies, tested.
• What is active now from signals today, and what the data says about each.
• No signals, no price targets, no affiliate links. Data and measurement, not advice.

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Latest

• Does buying the Bull Market Support Band work? 17 touches tested - 2026-10-24
  Buying the first touch of the 20-week SMA / 21-week EMA band since 2018 and holding 90 days: +4.7% on average, but random bull-market days made +18.3% and one episode carries the average. No edge.
• What is a funding rate? How it works, with data from 522 coins - 2026-10-23
  Who pays whom on perpetual futures, how the rate is set and what a normal rate looks like in 1.8 million payments.
• What is a liquidity sweep? How often bitcoin takes out yesterday's high or low - 2026-10-23
  Definition, sweep vs breakout vs stop hunt, and counts since 2018: about half of the moves beyond yesterday's level close back inside.
• Do new crypto listings dump after day one? 348 Binance futures listings tested - 2026-10-23
  Most listings fall, but shorting them was not an edge: +0.61% on average after costs and funding, a few coins ran 3-4x. No edge.
• Does rising open interest plus extreme funding predict reversals? - 2026-10-23
  On 522 Binance coins, adding rising open interest to extreme funding changed nothing: short -0.34%, long +0.07%. No edge.

How the tests work

1. Rules first. Entry, exit, time frame and the pass criterion are saved before any data is loaded.
2. A control for luck and a second period the idea was not built on.
3. Costs included - fees and funding are subtracted.
4. Published as is. "No edge" and "undecided" are results. Details: about.